I see Tony Caldero, Danerics, and “Lunker” blog aren’t open for discussion of the bear case….. Understandable when taking huge losses on longs but not very “Objective”….. I see lots of people trying to recreate the old Caldero blog atmosphere….. Bears and Bulls and especially charts are welcome here, an occasional news link, video ect….. No personal attacks and respect for all is all I ask thanks….. I’ll try to post some charts soon, I have LOTS of them…..
I think this wave is about done and this could even be the LAST ONE UP from the lows in the 30’s depression…. The silly amount of complacency in the “markets” and love of the FED enabled by our criminally insane government would be bad enough, but the situation is even worse nearly everywhere worldwide…..
We can still have a blow off bubble top straight up but what the hell, Im with the nonexistent bears here…. The other optimistic scenario would be we are nearly done and 3100’ish would end P1 of V and then grind along or perhaps complete either a contacting or expanding ED along the lower LONG term trend line but all the waves are potentially in to complete 5 of a LONG V from 1930’s and the fourth turning (END OF THE OLD ORDER) is finally ready to start THE END GAME….
Of course It does also count very nice as an ABC and it’s due for a bounce I guess with all the extreme bearish sentiment going into year end so ‘they” could and WOULD have to ramp the hell out of it here…. As much as Id love to see it crash here and loving the action in gold and ST bonds I think 2021 or possibly even 2024 could be targets for THE END if we don’t do it like right now…. So PPT, I think the market is calling your hand here…
Here’s a potential bullish count, note the black trend lines, the one it’s on goes back to the 1921 bear =) Now accuracy is a problem with a T/L that long LOL but it does also meet it at the one from 09…. The white lines are FIB time…. The purple lines show a potential expanding ED should the PPT “pull it” here and regret it then do QE or some other BS sending it TO THE MOON…. Thats pretty much it in my mind scam it up higher or it dies here and now…… I do expect a bounce and I wouldn’t be surprised if they grind it on and on up in another ED from here all the way to 2021…. We see where it opens on the futures soon….
It’s the Solstice and it appears it’s also a full moon, I don’t pay any attention to the moon cycles but it does seem like nice timing =)
I did a little more on the chart of DOOM, LOL BUT it’s really not so funny, NOBODY seems to want to accept it and it appears the world is on the brink anyhow…. SAD but true….. SHTF soon I AM AFRAID, no BS, no joke =(
As the chart shows this is about it for the bulls yet I don’t celebrate it…
It can either bounce here (2300 is my line of DOOM) or we can start the last 5 year long wave 5 into 2024….. MOAR inflation??? Maybe and I can’t rule out the mother of all ENDING DIAGONALS on the LAST wave 5….. OR ELSE about sums it all up, Id love to be wrong…..
Here’s a 101 year DOW chart 🙂 As you can see lots of key LONG term trend lines converge with recent lows along with a lot of bears…. Thing is I think we bears are afraid to short here for good reason, therefore I cant see a bounce living long… I dont see a huge straight up ramp with all the recent damage…. A stick save would likely grind up that T/L back to the longest one in a grindathon wave 5 ED with a blow off top a year or more out…. Im not gonna talk about that kinda doom for bears though, I think the odds favor the bears but the bulls can keep hope alive until around 2350 SPX where I’ll rule out any more bull trends for a LONG time…..
Im still going with the super bear count and I expect a lower low next week, a real crash is not out of the question and inevitable, now or later is my only question… I could see it bouncing on that lower T/L for a while Monday to complete wave 2 and then the big 3 down, Id expect all the dippers who buy will be burn’t on the huge gap down to start…
“Why, for example, is it still acceptable to profess the philosophy of a Communist or, if not that, to at least admire the work of Marx? Why is it still acceptable to regard the Marxist doctrine as essentially accurate in its diagnosis of the hypothetical evils of the free-market, democratic West; to still consider that doctrine “progressive,” and fit for the compassionate and proper thinking person? Twenty-five million dead through internal repression in the Soviet Union. Sixty million dead in Mao’s China. The horrors of Cambodia’s Killing Fields, with their two million corpses. The barely animate body politic of Cuba, where people struggle even now to feed themselves. Venezuela, where it has now been made illegal to attribute a child’s death in hospital to starvation. No political experiment has ever been tried so widely, with so many disparate people, in so many different countries and failed so absolutely and so catastrophically. Is it mere ignorance that allows today’s Marxists to flaunt their continued allegiance – to present it as compassion and care? Or is it instead, envy of the successful, in near-infinite proportions? Or something akin to hatred for mankind itself? How much proof do we need?”
SO here we are again…. Same old levels apply, bullish above 2777 SPX, 25.8K DOW, NDX is lagging in the futures and it will need 100+ points to come close to 7186 and COMPQ needs to get to 7505….. DOW propaganda “index” has been leading the way and all bets are off for the bears if they can reclaim 26.5K and around 2875 on SPX….. Im in show me mode still but a bond and gold rally along with King $$$ weakness looks in play to me short term…. Im still in he bear camp until they break it out to the upside and I believe the bulls will be bagholders soon =)
I’ve been lazy with my charts but this market is still untradable from here though I may dabble in a day trade or two next week which is promising to be very interesting….. SOON I think…..
SPX 2777 is holding for now, bulls need to get it UP now or else =) Took a small long at about 2780, stop is 2777 and Im looking for a close above 2820 =) AND NOPE, stop triggered, 2772 needs to hold for bulls….. SO now short from 2772, stop 2777….. LOL still short, looking to fill the first gap and 50ma at 2755ish…. AND I covered at 2771, too oversold here to be short…. Bulls will need to close above the 200 ma on the 60 minute chart at 2778
Im sticking with the primary bear count though the expanded ED still looks viable to me, possibly a blow off top into year end wouldn’t surprise me….. I think at the very least the huge gaps below get filled before starting up in a potential year end rally into the middle of Jan 2019…..